Microsoft word - azn quickview 100129
AstraZeneca’s FY09 operational performance showed it was able to benefit from
the opportunities created by the shortage in supply of generic Toprol XL and the
swine flu vaccine, while also decreasing its working capital by $1.3bn. However, its
shares trade at a considerable discount to its peers (FY09 P/E of 7.4x vs 12.5x)
because of exaggerated concerns about the patent cliff. The five-year guidance
suggests that revenues could be 15% higher than 2014 consensus forecasts.
Cautious on 2010, but more optimism thereafter
Although AstraZeneca reported adjusted EPS 8% below consensus estimates for Q4
09 and tempered expectations for 2010, it presented optimistic guidance for the next
five years. The company believes that revenues in 2014 will be nearing $34bn, c 3%
higher than in 2009, while consensus estimates suggest they will be 13% lower.
Confidence of overcoming looming patent cliff
This suggests AstraZeneca is confident about negotiating the challenges caused by
patent expiries on key products (Arimidex, Nexium and Seroquel), with revenue
pharmaceutical company focussed primarily on gastrointestinal,
growth from the rest of its portfolio, including its promising new products (eg
Onglyza and Brilinta), likely to more than compensate for lost revenues. This
guidance is dependent on the successful defence of Crestor’s patents.
Consensus well below medium-term guidance
We believe that consensus estimates are conservative and are forecasting adjusted
EPS of $5.60 compared to $5.37 in 2014. AstraZeneca’s revenue guidance suggests
that it could achieve adjusted EPS of c $6.30 by 2014, 14% above our figure.
We value AstraZeneca at £48.2bn using DCF, which puts the shares on a P/E of
8.4x, still at a significant discount to peers, which trade on average at 12.5x. The
downside risk is reduced by the introduction of a progressive dividend policy with
the shares yielding 4.9% and the re-introduction of a share buy-back programme.
There is considerable upside if AstraZeneca can deliver on its long-term guidance.
Note: Edison Investment Research estimates
EDISON INVESTMENT RESEARCH LIMITED Edison is Europe’s leading independent investment research company. It has won industry recognition, with awards in both the UK and internationally. The team of more than 50 includes over 30 analysts supported by a department of supervisory analysts, editors and assistants. Edison writes on more than 250 companies across every sector and works directly with corporates, investment banks, brokers and fund managers. Edison’s research is read by every major institutional investor in the UK, as well as by the private client broker and international investor communities. Edison was founded in 2003 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. DISCLAIMER Copyright 2010 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and issued by Edison Investment Research Limited for publication in the United Kingdom. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison Investment Research Limited at the time of publication. The research in this document is intended for professional advisers in the United Kingdom for use in their roles as advisers. It is not intended for retail investors. This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite securities or units. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment. A marketing communication under FSA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison Investment Research Limited has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Investment Research Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business. The company does not hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, its directors, officers, employees and contractors may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison Investment Research Limited or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Edison Investment Research Lincoln House, 296-302 High Holborn, London, WC1V 7JH tel: +44 (0)20 3077 5700 fax: +44 (0)20 3077 5750 www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk
Registered in England, number 4794244. Edison Investment Research is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
Halleneinweihung 14. - 17.11. und 21. - 23.11.2008 Startliste Prüfung Nr.: 6C Start-Nr. WILOTTIE Tanja Stutz, Heimenhausen JOPPE VAN HALEN Florence Zumbühl, Urswil TROJA VII Hans Meier, Hagendorn Yasmin Wüest, Eschenbach MY DIAMOND STING Mikkel Thomsen, Birrwil CARBINO Z Sandra Schori, Kriegstetten QUANTAS KDR Z Dominik Wiesner, Zunz
GEBRAUCHSINFORMATION: INFORMATION FÜR DEN ANWENDER Thrombo ASS 75 mg-Filmtabletten Lesen Sie die gesamte Packungsbeilage sorgfältig durch, bevor Sie mit der Einnahme dieses Arzneimittels beginnen. - Heben Sie die Packungsbeilage auf. Vielleicht möchten Sie diese später nochmals lesen. Wenn Sie weitere Fragen haben, wenden Sie sich an Ihren Arzt oder Apotheker. Dieses Arznei