Microsoft word - retail analysis with drew's comments

Analysis of Retail Activity in Communities Surrounding the Proposed Lighthouse An Analysis of Retail Activity in Communities
Surrounding the Proposed Lighthouse Development
By Dr. Pearl M. Kamer, Consulting Economist Concern has been expressed that the proposed 500,000 square feet of retail-related space proposed for the Lighthouse development will have adverse consequences for
retailers in surrounding and neighboring downtowns.
Sandra G. Johnson, Co-President, Chamber of Commerce of the Bellmores: “We are
concerned that the amount of retail space [at the Lighthouse] will adversely affect our
local businesses.”
Nicholas P. Episcopia, Garden City Trustee: “Charles Wang definitely stated that the
project would contain some housing, retail to support the housing, and cafes and pubs to
make attending the coliseum more attractive. Exactly the opposite has
happened…500,000 square feet of retail is the size of a mall…”
Incorporated Village of Garden City: “Many of the surrounding downtowns are
experiencing economic hardships and a substantial increase in storefront vacancies. The
proposed construction of…one half million square feet of commercial space under these
circumstances is not smart growth. This new space will directly and unfairly complete
with the existing surrounding downtown centers, including Garden City’s, which will
seriously exacerbate the existing problems currently being experienced.”
Village of Hempstead: “Due to the magnitude of the proposed project, and its potential
significant adverse effects on the Village’s ongoing downtown redevelopment efforts,
including as projected in the Village’s Plan, 2,500 new housing units, 283,600 square feet
of retail space and 382,100 square feet of office space, we strongly urge that a full
commercial character assessment be prepared as part of the socio-economic impact
analysis…For this analysis, it is urged that the trade area generally correspond to a least a
five-mile radius around the project site, which would include the Hempstead CBD.”
This study addresses these concerns. To determine the likelihood that the proposed retail space at the Lighthouse will compete with existing retailing in surrounding downtowns, to the detriment of merchants in these downtowns, a field survey of retail activity in surrounding downtowns was conducted between August 22nd and August 28th, 2009. The communities surveyed were Hempstead Village, Uniondale, East Meadow, Carle Place, Mineola, Garden City, Bellmore and Westbury. With the exception of Uniondale, East Meadow and Bellmore, each of these communities has a well-defined downtown shopping district. The goal of the field survey was to determine the mix of retail activity in each community and ascertain the prevalence of vacant or underutilized retail space. The Retail Centers Studied

The retail centers studied ranged in distance from the Lighthouse of between 2.7 miles and 11.5 miles as shown in the following table. As the following table also shows, there are numerous retailers, primarily in strip commercial retail centers, between the retail downtown of each community and the Lighthouse. Community
Approximate
Surveyed
Distance From
Lighthouse in
Amount of Retail Between
Downtown Area Surveyed & Lighthouse
There are numerous neighborhood stores along Fulton Avenue and Hempstead Turnpike between Main St. in downtown Hempstead & Earl Ovington Blvd. Many of these stores cater to the needs of students at nearby Hofstra University. There are also numerous student-oriented bars and fast food establishments. There are neighborhood stores along Uniondale Avenue between Jerusalem Ave and Hempstead Turnpike. This is the most direct path to the Lighthouse. There are also some fast food stores and hair salons along Front Street between Uniondale Avenue and the Meadowbrook Parkway. There is a Home Depot as well as fast food restaurants and other neighborhood stores going west along Hempstead Turnpike between Front Street and James Doolittle Blvd. There is an enormous amount of regional retailing just south of the Glen Cove shopping corridor surveyed. This includes the Source Mall in Westbury and the Roosevelt Field Shopping Center just north of the Lighthouse property Both the Garden City downtown shopping center and the Roosevelt Field Shopping Center lie between the Mineola downtown shopping area and the Lighthouse. Both centers are regional shopping centers containing national market retailers. The Roosevelt Field Shopping Center is located just east of the Garden City downtown area and northwest of the Lighthouse. Roosevelt Field is a regional shopping center containing national market retailers. There are numerous neighborhood-type retailers along Merrick Road going west to the Meadowbrook Parkway. These are at a substantial distance from the Lighthouse. There are numerous neighborhood-type restaurants, supermarkets, hair salons and similar retailers along Merrick Avenue between Old Country Rd. and Hempstead Turnpike going south toward the Lighthouse.
Summary of Findings

Of the eight downtown shopping centers surveyed, all but Carle Place and the Franklin Avenue Corridor within Garden City contain retailers that predominantly serve the needs of their resident populations. Such neighborhood-type retailers generally understand the needs of their customers and presumably stock merchandise and maintain store hours that meet those needs. In Hempstead Village, Uniondale and Westbury Village, retailing is geared to the needs of their large Hispanic population. Given the results of the field survey, it is unlikely that the predominantly
entertainment-related and neighborhood-type retailing proposed for the Lighthouse
will compete with most existing retail businesses in surrounding downtowns. Rather,
the purchasing power ($250M annually) that potential Lighthouse residents will bring
to the community is likely to have a positive impact on the retail community.

Proposed Retailing at the Lighthouse

The proposed retail space at the Lighthouse development will not be a shopping mall as critics contend. Approximately 65,000 square feet will be a cinema and the
remaining 435,000 square feet will consist of entertainment-oriented lifestyle retail
development and neighborhood-type shops designed to serve the needs of Lighthouse
residents. About 82,000 of the 435,000 square feet will be restaurants and there will be a
50,000 square foot grocery store. This means that the net retail area planned for the
Lighthouse will be approximately 303,000 square feet.
The Mix of Retail Development Planned for the Lighthouse
Type of Retailing
Estimated Square Feet
Total 500,000
Cinema 65,000
Remainder 435,000
Restaurants
Remainder 303,000
Source: Lighthouse Development Group
Existing Retailing in the Town of Hempstead

A net addition of 303,000 square feet of retail space at the Lighthouse, even a
gross addition of 500,000 square feet, is actually a small fraction of the retail space that
already exists within the Town of Hempstead. For example, there is at least 7.1 million
square feet of retail space within communities surrounding the proposed Lighthouse
development. The nearby Roosevelt Field Mall alone contains approximately 2.4 million
square feet of retail space. Its 345 stores include not only restaurants but also offer
virtually every conceivable line of retailing.
If it is argued that the entertainment-related and neighborhood-type retailing
planned for the Lighthouse competes directly with retailers in surrounding downtowns,
it could certainly be argued that the abundance and diversity of retailing at the
Roosevelt Field Mall poses a much greater competitive threat to these downtown
shopping districts.

Estimated Retail Square Footage in
Communities Surrounding the Proposed Lighthouse Development
Community
Street Location
No. of Stores
East Garden City
Total 4,218,000
Garden City CBD
Total 745,000
East Meadow
Total 821,000
Hempstead
Total 1,135,000
Uniondale
Total 181,000
Grand Total
7,100,000
Source: Nassau-Suffolk Regional Planning Council The Mix of Retail Activity at the Roosevelt Field Shopping Mall
Retail Category
Categories*
Percent of Total
Men's and Women's Fashions / Modas de Caballeros y Damas Total 345
*Some retailers are classified in more than one category. Therefore the number of categories exceeds the number of stores. Source: Roosevelt Field Website The Field Survey: General Findings.
A total of 763 street level businesses were surveyed in Hempstead Village, Uniondale, East Meadow, Carle Place, Mineola, Garden City, Bellmore and Westbury. • Approximately half of them consisted of restaurants, food service establishments • Some 13% provided legal, travel or financial services. • Another 12% provided various household services. • Only 9% were clothing or department stores. • The vacancy rate for the shopping districts studied was 7%.
In all of the downtown shopping districts surveyed, the types of retailers present closely
reflected the unique demography, culture, financial status and needs of the immediate
community.

Mix of Street Level Businesses, by Category
Hempstead Village, Uniondale, East Meadow, Carle Place,
Mineola, Garden City, Bellmore, and Westbury
Category Number
Source: Field Survey
The Field Survey: Specific Shopping Districts

Hempstead Village. Retail activity in Hempstead Village is concentrated on
Main Street north and south of Fulton Avenue, along Fulton Avenue between Main and
Front Streets and between Fronts Street and Hilton Avenue. Hispanic restaurants, deli’s,
groceries, multi-service businesses and travel agencies are prominently represented in the
retail community. The western end of Fulton Street is anchored by a modern Home
Depot shopping mall. Approximately half of all street level businesses in the downtown
shopping center were restaurants, fast food establishments and health and beauty
establishments, 15% were clothing or department stores, and 11% provided legal, tax,
and travel services, including money grams to foreign destinations. Specific retailers by
street are listed in the tables below.

Number of Street Level Businesses, by Category
Village of Hempstead
Category Number
Survey Results: Main Street From Fulton to Centre Streets
Retail Store
Retail Store
Survey Results: Main Street From Centre to Jackson Streets
Retail Store
Retail Store
Survey Results: Centre Street East of Main Street
Retail Store
Retail Store
Survey Results: Main Street South of Fulton Avenue
Retail Store
Retail Store
Survey Results: Fulton Avenue, Main Street to Front Street
Retail Store
Retail Store
Marise Hair Design & African Hair Braiding Survey Results: Fulton Avenue, Front Street to Terrace Avenue
Retail Store
Retail Store
Survey Results: Fulton Avenue, Terrace Avenue to Hilton Avenue
Retail Store
Retail Store
Source: Field Survey

Uniondale.
Retail activity in Uniondale is concentrated in the corridor along Uniondale Avenue north of Jerusalem Avenue. Almost 70% of all retailers in this area
are restaurants, fast food establishments and health and beauty establishments; 16% of all
businesses provide various household or personal services, including plumbing, check
cashing, day care, and laundry services. Hispanic and Caribbean retailers are well
represented within the community. Multiservice firms provide legal, tax and immigration
help and arrange travel and money grams to Latin American destinations. There were
no vacant stores in the retail corridor surveyed.

Number of Street Level Businesses, by Category, Uniondale
Category Number
Survey Results: Uniondale Avenue Between Jerusalem Avenue & Henry Streets
Retail Store
Retail Store
Scholastic Promotions – Plaques & Trophies Survey Results: Uniondale Avenue Between Webster Ave. & Midwood Street
Retail Store
Retail Store
Supreme Cultural Center & Internet Cafe Survey Results: Front Street Between Uniondale Ave. & New Jersey Ave.
Retail Store
Retail Store
El Nuevo Globito Bakery & Restaurant Survey Results: Front Street Between New Jersey Ave. & Chester Street
Retail Store
Retail Store
East Meadow. East Meadow does not have a geographically concentrated
downtown shopping district. Rather, retail activity is dispersed along Hempstead Turnpike between Bly Road and Carmen Avenue/Third Street. Retailers in this corridor are generally located in major shopping malls that are anchored by national market retailers such as Marshall’s clothing or Home Depot. Two large shopping centers are also located at the intersection of Front Street and East Meadow Avenue. Smaller neighborhood shopping centers are found along Merrick Road between Front Street and Warren Street. Almost 60% of the retailers surveyed in this community were restaurants, fast food establishments or health and beauty stores. Approximately 14% provided household or personal services and 7% were vacant. The types of retailers present in East Meadow generally service the population of the immediate community. Number of Street Level Businesses, by Category, East Meadow
Category Number
Survey Results: Southwest Corner of Front Street & East Meadow Avenue
Retail Store
Retail Store
Iannuzzi Fine Food & Catering - VACANT Survey Results: Northeast Corner of Front Street & East Meadow Avenue
Retail Store
Retail Store
Survey Results: Hempstead Turnpike, Bly Road To Carmen Ave./Third Street
Retail Store
Retail Store
Pearl’s Art & Craft Store - VACANT Frantori’s Italian Restaurant & Pizzeria New York Physical Therapy & Wellness Survey Results: Merrick Road Between Hempstead Turnpike & Warren Street
Retail Store
Retail Store
Carle Place. Retail activity within Carle Place is concentrated along Glen Cove
Road between Old Country Road and Jericho Turnpike. Unlike the other shopping centers surveyed, the Carle Place shopping center contains the types of retailers that draw customers from outside the immediate community. Several large furniture retailers, including Macy’s, Raymour & Flanigan, Ashley Furniture and La-Z-Boy are present. Other specialty retailers like Bridal Reflections, Elements Lighting, Innovation Luggage and the Corningware Factory Store also attract patrons from relatively long distances. This shopping corridor is just north of the Roosevelt Field Shopping Mall, which positions it to attract patrons of Roosevelt Field. Most retailing in the Carle Place shopping corridor is concentrated in large shopping malls. The mix of retailers in the Carle Place shopping corridor is different from that of the neighborhood shopping centers studied. Only about one-third of the retailers present are restaurants, fast food establishments or health and beauty stores; 21% are clothing or department stores; 18% are furniture or home décor retailers. Six percent of the stores surveyed were vacant. Number of Street Level Businesses, by Category, Carle Place
Category Number
Survey Results: Carle Place Commons at the
Northeast Corner of Glen Cove & Old Country Roads
Retail Store
Retail Store
Survey Results: TJ Maxx Shopping Center, Glen Cove Rd. & Voice Rd.
Retail Store
Retail Store
Survey Results: Glen Cove Rd. & Westbury Ave.
Retail Store
Retail Store
Elements Distinctive Lighting & Furnishings Survey Results: Glen Cove Rd. Between Westbury Ave. & Jericho Tpke
Retail Store
Retail Store
Mineola Village. The Village of Mineola has a compact shopping district that
abuts the Mineola Station of the Long Island Rail Road and is adjacent to the Nassau County government center and Winthrop University Hospital. The numerous dining facilities, law offices, men’s and women’s clothiers and personal service businesses within the shopping district reflect the needs of the many workers in the area. Almost 60% of the retailers in the downtown shopping area are restaurants, fast food establishments or health and beauty stores; 13% provide household or personal services and a relatively high percentage, 12%, are vacant. Number of Street Level Businesses, by Category, Mineola Village
Category Number
Survey Results: Station Plaza Between Third Ave. & Mineola Blvd. Extension
Retail Store
Retail Store
Farrell, Farrell & Burke Legal Offices Survey Results: Mineola Blvd. Extension Between Station Plaza & 2nd St.
Retail Store
Retail Store
Survey Results: Mineola Blvd. From 2nd St. to Main St.
Retail Store
Retail Store
Survey Results: Main St. From 2nd St. to Station Plaza
Retail Store
Retail Store
Clifford Michael Designed Outlet - VACANT Survey Results: Main St. From 2nd St. to 1st St.
Retail Store
Retail Store
Survey Results: 2nd St. East of Main St.
Retail Store
Retail Store
Survey Results: Mineola Blvd. From 2nd St. to 1st St.
Retail Store
Retail Store
Survey Results: Mineola Blvd. From 1st St. to Harrison Avenue
Retail Store
Retail Store
Collins, McDonald & Gann, PC, Lawyers The Valentine Real Estate & Insurance Agency Survey Results: Old Country Road Between 3rd Ave. & Mineola Blvd.
Retail Store
Retail Store
Survey Results: Mineola Blvd., Old Country Road to Station Plaza
Retail Store
Retail Store
Survey Results: Old Country Road, Mineola Blvd. To Roslyn Rd.
Retail Store
Retail Store
Action Sports Medicine & Rehabilitation Garden City. Garden City’s shopping district actually encompasses two
shopping corridors: The Seventh Street corridor and the Franklin Avenue business corridor. The Seventh Street shopping district includes businesses along Seventh Street west of Franklin Avenue, along Franklin Avenue South of Seventh Street, and along Franklin Avenue between Seventh Street and Stewart Avenue. This corridor includes retailers that primarily serve the needs of the local population. Supermarkets, savings banks, cleaners, beauty salons, shoe repair shops and florists are well represented in this shopping area. By contrast, medical offices, banks, brokers and other financial service firms predominate along the Franklin Avenue between Stewart Avenue and Twelfth Street. These businesses tend to draw patrons from a broader geographic area. The mix of businesses in the Garden City shopping district is considerably different from the mix of business in the other retail centers studied in that financial service firms account for 18% of all businesses. Restaurants and health and beauty establishments account for about 42% of the total. However, the types of restaurants, food stores and spas present in Garden City reflect the relative affluence of the Garden City population. Cases in point include Edible Arrangements, La Nonna Bella Restaurant, Salon Imperiale, and Garden City Skin Care Center. Upscale jewelry, fur, antique stores and art galleries are also present. Number of Street Level Businesses, by Category, Garden City
Category Number
Survey Results: The Franklin Avenue Business Corridor
Retail Store
Retail Store
Stewart Avenue to Ninth Street
Ninth Street to Tenth Street
Mahalo Health Spa & Tea House - VACANT Tenth Street to Eleventh Street
Eleventh to Twelfth Streets
Survey Results: The Seventh Street Neighborhood Shopping Corridor
Retail Store
Retail Store
Seventh Street West of Franklin Avenue
Seventh Street West of Franklin Avenue
Franklin Avenue South of Seventh Street
Village Valet Cleaners & Shoe Repair-VACANT Franklin Avenue Between Seventh St. & Stewart Ave.
The Bellmores. Merrick Road is the dominant shopping street within the
Bellmores. Much of the retail activity along Merrick Road takes place between Winthrop Avenue and Newbridge Road. Although the Bellmores do not have a compact downtown shopping district as in Mineola or Hempstead or Garden City Villages, the types of stores represented along Merrick Road generally serve neighborhood populations. Almost 60% of the retailers surveyed were restaurants, fast food establishments or health and beauty stores; 12% provided various household or personal services. A relatively high percentage, 10%, was vacant. Number of Street Level Businesses, by Category, The Bellmores
Category Number
Survey Results: Merrick Road From Winthrop Avenue to Newbridge Road
Retail Store
Retail Store
Island South Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation Jim Cuccias & Sons, General Contractor Personal Touch Cosmetics & Fragrances Frills & Things, Fabric & Craft Supplies Survey Results: Merrick Road From Winthrop Avenue to Newbridge Road
(Continued)
Women’s Clothing Factory Outlet - VACANT
Westbury Village. Westbury Village has a compact downtown shopping district
along Post Avenue just north of the Westbury Long Island Rail Road station. A local business improvement district (BID) has been working to beautify the downtown and make it attractive to shoppers. Hispanic shops predominate in this downtown, a reflection of the unique demography of the local population. Almost 60% of the shops surveyed were restaurants, fast food establishment or health and beauty stores; 14% provided tax, legal, immigration and travel services, including money grams to Latin American destinations; 12% provided various household services and 9% were vacant. Number of Street Level Businesses, by Category, Westbury Village
Category Number
Survey Results: Post Avenue From Winthrop Street/Drexel Avenue to Union Ave.
Retail Store
Retail Store
St. Brigid’s Attic – Vintage Clothing Wheatley Hills Discount Wine & Spirits ABC Business Services Corp., Accounting, Tax Multi Services Express – Money Grams, Income Tax Zapateria Mexico – Mexican Hats & Boots
Summary of Findings

Of the eight downtown shopping centers surveyed, all but Carle Place and the Franklin Avenue Corridor within Garden City contain retailers that predominantly serve the needs of their resident populations. Such neighborhood-type retailers generally understand the needs of their customers and presumably stock merchandise and maintain store hours that meet those needs. In Hempstead Village, Uniondale and Westbury Village, retailing is geared to the needs of their large Hispanic population. Given the results of the field survey, it is unlikely that the predominantly
entertainment-related and neighborhood-type retailing proposed for the Lighthouse
will compete with most existing retail businesses in surrounding downtowns. Rather,
the purchasing power ($250M annually) that potential Lighthouse residents will bring
to the community is likely to have a positive impact on the retail community.
The Lighthouse development is expected to house more than 4,800 residents in 2,300 residential units at full development and full occupancy. Given the anticipated sales prices of the residential units, Lighthouse residents inject as much as $250 million annually in discretionary purchasing power into the community. As the following table shows, Uniondale, East Meadow and Hempstead Village are characterized by incomes that are below the comparable Nassau County benchmark income. Presumably, the price points of retailers located within these communities are consistent with the income levels within these communities. Therefore, the purchasing power of each community may be sufficient to support its own retail activity. Clearly any additional purchasing power introduced by residents of the Lighthouse will be helpful to retailers in these communities. Only Garden City definitely has the resident purchasing power to support its local retailers. Even here, however, the additional purchasing power introduced by Lighthouse residents may be helpful to Garden City merchants. Median & Mean Household Income, Selected Communities 2007
Median Income
Mean Income
Nassau County
$115,285
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-2007 American Community Survey; Income in Past 12 Months (2007) It is reasonable to conclude, therefore, that the additional purchasing power that potential Lighthouse residents will bring to the community will be a positive
development for existing retailers.
Specific Concerns: Hempstead Village

Hempstead Village is in the process of implementing a development plan that includes an additional 283,600 square feet of retail space. They have performed a comprehensive analysis of the potential for future retail development and have concluded that there is a potential for additional clothing & accessory and furniture and home furnishing stores. Based on the field survey of retailing within the Hempstead Village CBD, this seems like a reasonable direction for future retail development especially when you consider the amount number of residential units they are planning which increase the local spending power The retailing proposed for the Lighthouse development will in no way impede future retail development within Hempstead Village. Proposed Lighthouse retail development will include cafes and restaurants likely to be patronized by those who attend events at the transformed Coliseum or the proposed Cinema. It will include retailers specializing in sports-related merchandise. It will also include groceries and purveyors of various personal services, including cleaners, shoe repair shops, tailors and florists, which serve the needs of Lighthouse residents. The trade area for some of this retailing will undoubtedly be greater than five miles, which will include Hempstead Village. Sports events can draw fans from fifty
miles or more. The important point is that the retail development proposed for the
Lighthouse will complement not conflict with the retail development planned for
Hempstead Village and will most likely increase revenues for the local merchants

Specific Concerns: Garden City Village

The specific concerns expressed by Garden City Village are of a slightly different nature. Garden City is concerned about growing storefront vacancies associated with the recession and about whether the new retail space proposed for the Lighthouse will complete with existing retailers in the Village. The field survey showed that only 5% of the 134 retail spaces surveyed in downtown Garden City were vacant and that these vacancies occurred primarily along Franklin Avenue and affected some its financial service firms. There were only two vacancies in the Seventh Avenue neighborhood-shopping corridor. Since the current recession started in the financial services sector, it is not surprising to find vacancies among financial service firms along Franklin Avenue. Presumably this situation will be resolved when the economy begins to recovery. In the longer run, however, the relatively affluent residents that the Lighthouse development will bring to the community are likely to be potential customers for the many banks, investment houses and brokers along Franklin Avenue. In short, the Lighthouse development is likely to have a positive rather than a negative impact on the Franklin Avenue business corridor.

Source: http://www.toh.li/files/pdfs/th_lighthouse/Appendix_C491.pdf